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  Malaysia's economic growth could accelerate beyond 2020  

Sunday, 25 November 2018

By Christine Lim

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 25 (Bernama) -- Malaysia’s economic growth could accelerate beyond 2020 if commodities prices were to pick up on the back of a recovery in global economic growth.

Moody’s Analytics Chief Asia-Pacific Economist Steven G. Cochrane said Malaysia’s economic growth would likely slow down in the next two years as weak global economic outlook could weigh on commodity prices.

“Malaysia, as an open economy, is susceptible to global trend. Every region in the world could see slower growth in 2019 and 2020,” he told Bernama during the Moody’s Analytics Economic and Credit Risk Forum recently.

Cochrane projected that Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth may slow down from 5.9 per cent in 2017 to 4.8 per cent in 2018, 4.4 per cent in 2019 and 3.6 per cent in 2020.

“The lower commodity prices because of slower global economic growth will hurt emerging markets and Malaysia.

“We don’t see any acceleration in commodity prices until the global economy picks up,” he added.

Crude palm oil (CPO) prices have seen significant weakness since the start of this year, with CPO futures prices hovering near RM2,000 per tonne, due to high stock level and weak demand.

He said the US fiscal stimulus, which has been supporting the US economy, was expected to come to an end in 2020 and this may slow down US’ economic growth and weigh on the global economy and the commodity market.

“If we can get to 2020, without a recession in the US and Europe, then there could be a rebound in global growth in 2021 and 2022,” he said.

Cochrane said the US-China trade war could also impact on global trade and economy, and in the worst case scenario, it could disrupt supply chain and lead to recession in the US and hurt other economies.

“A lot depend on US President Donald Trump and President Xi Jin Ping’s meeting at the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Buenos Aires at the end of this month.

“All eyes will look for signals coming from Trump and Xi if there could be some settlement on the trade war and if the Trump administration were to allow tariffs to rise to the schedule 25 per cent by next year,” he said.

If tariffs were to rise and expand to include all trade between China and the US, he said, it would add friction to the Malaysian and global economy.

As for Malaysia, he said, the risks were clearly on the downside, as they were much for the rest of the region as the expectation of a weaker global economy has dampened oil prices, as well as export orders.

“As a net oil exporter, falling oil prices means the dollar volume of exports will be reduced.

“The price for crude oil has fallen because global demand has slowed and production out of the US shale producing areas has accelerated quickly over the past year.

“The fact that US production has risen so quickly meant that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has less ability to control prices,” he said.

Cochrane said the sanctions on Iran oil have no significant impact on oil prices, as there were a number of exemptions in placed.

He said that oil price, based on West Texas Intermediate as a measure of oil price, was projected to be at the US$69.1 per barrel this year, and move to US$67.2 per barrel in 2019 and US$63.5 per barrel in 2020.

Cochrane emphasised that Malaysia’s effort to improve transparency and the peaceful transition of power to the new government this year were positive in terms of investors’ confidence, and in the longer term good debt management would support economic growth as there would be less budget for debt servicing.

“As the government tightens fiscal policy to improve debt management amid slower export growth, Malaysia's economic growth is expected to slow during the next two years,” he said.



Third national car can put Malaysia at forefront of automotive evolution

Friday, 18 January 2019

By Mohd Khairi Idham Amran

KUALA LUMPUR  (Bernama) – The third national car project provides an opportunity for Malaysia-based companies to be at the forefront of the global automotive industry evolution, according to industry watchers.


Daunting task ahead for MPOB

Friday, 18 January 2019

By Nurul Hanis Izmir

KUALA LUMPUR (Bernama) --The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will have a daunting task in reducing Malaysia's mounting palm oil stocks, said to be at its highest level in 20 years, but the industry regulator is...

Perlu Kumpulan Pemikir Tangani Isu Kehamilan Remaja

Tuesday, 15 January 2019

Oleh Salbiah Said

Rencana ini adalah bahagian akhir daripada dua bahagian mengenai kehamilan luar nikah yang melibatkan gadis belasan tahun.

PETALING JAYA (Bernama) -- Pertubuhan Kesihatan Sedunia (WHO) mengenalpasti kira-kira 16 juta remaja perempuan melahirkan anak setiap tahun dan...


Need For a Think-Tank to Tackle Teenage Pregnancy

Tuesday, 15 January 2019

By Salbiah Said

This is the second of a two-part article on out of wedlock pregnancy involving teenage girls.   

PETALING JAYA (Bernama) -- World Health Organisation (WHO) statistics have revealed that about 16 million adolescent girls give birth every year,...

Issue 252   Issue 250
 English Version      Versi B. Melayu  

Agong presents instruments of appointment to three Malaysian envoys

KL -- Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri'ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah presented intruments of appointment to three Malaysian envoys assigned to missions abroad in a ceremony held at the Istana...


Sekretariat Muafakat Komuniti disasar ditubuhkan di 20 PPR tahun ini

KL -- Kementerian Perumahan dan Kerajaan Tempatan (KPKT) menyasar menubuhkan Sekretariat Muafakat Komuniti di 20 projek Perumahan Rakyat (PPR) dikendalikan kementerian itu di seluruh negara pada tahun ini, yang bakal...

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